‘Stickier’ Inflation Makes Investors Nervous

The International Monetary Fund's latest economic outlook warns of ‘stickier’ inflation, central bank uncertainty, and other factors that could make investors nervous. While its latest forecast says the global economy would grow 2.8 per cent this year and three per cent starting in 2024, it also offered a 25 per cent chance that the annual global growth rate would fall below two per cent in 2023. A ‘significant’ financial shock that could risk a global recession was given a 15 per cent chance. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF's chief economist, says "the financial sector has become too complacent" despite last year's UK gilt crisis that stressed pension funds' liability-driven investing programs there and recent bank crises in the U.S. These illustrate that vulnerabilities still exist, he says.