Short Recession Becomes Consensus

A short technical recession in Canada has become the consensus scenario for economists, says a Bloomberg survey of economists. With gross domestic product expected to record back-to-back quarterly declines at the start of 2023, it marks the first time in recent memory two straight quarters of contraction are the base case. Based on median estimates in the survey, Canada’s economy is projected to contract by an annualized 0.5 per cent in the first three months of 2023 and 0.6 per cent in the second quarter. Most economists are still anticipating a largely soft-landing outlook, with Canada returning to growth in the second half. The economy is seen growing by an average 0.6 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2024.

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