China’s Outlook Appears Positive

With the latest news in China that COVID-19 is weakening, with suggestions that more than 95 per cent of cases are now being reported as asymptomatic, mild, and with low fatality rates, its major cities are now lifting lockdown restrictions and the economic outlook is looking increasingly positive for next year, says Dato' Seri CHEAH Cheng Hye, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer at Value Partners Group in Hong Kong. Writing in its ‘2023 China Outlook,’ he said “in recent weeks, we have seen one positive surprise after another from Beijing. It has been faster than expected regarding the easing of COVID restrictions. In addition, there is a rescue package for the property market and a positive move in the right direction in terms of the relationship between China and the United States.” As a result, China has started a new cycle of growth and recovery and economic growth is now its number one priority. Forecasts are for growth of between 4.5 per cent to 5.1 per cent. “In comparison, much of the developed world has entered a slowdown and potential recession,” he says. This makes it important to put China in the global context and how it looks for the global investor. “Global order has broken down; we have been swept by social unrest, financialization, inflation, war, etc, even climate change. We're seeing the weaponization of trade, money, food supplies, and even human talent. So, I think the prevailing investment approach of the last, maybe 25 years, with Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) doesn't really work anymore,” he says.